How about a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in 2024?
Americans hope not.
While both men have indicated they plan to launch bids for a second term, voters aren’t thrilled about repeating the 2020 race in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll65% of registered voters, including half of Democrats, I don’t want President Biden to run for another term. And 68% of voters, including a third of Republicans, do not want former President Trump to run again.
Among independent voters, the swing group in most elections, more than 7 in 10 oppose each of them running.
“Honestly, no one else,” said John Beltran, 36, of Pflugerville, Texas. The software developer, a Democrat, was among those called in the survey. “We know what we’re getting with Trump and Biden,” he said, saying he would like to have other options.
Paleologists in the survey: Could a third-party candidate win the White House in 2024?
Americans express overwhelming dissatisfaction with both major parties and broad support for a third, an idea that has proven difficult to execute in the past. Weariness and wariness toward Biden and Trump, even among a fair share of those who voted for them two years ago, could create opportunities for potential rivals.
Horse racing polls taken two years before a presidential election have a dismal record of predicting who will prevail to win the nomination and the White House. They generally measure name identification as much as political views.
What is striking, however, is the enthusiasm of most Americans to support candidates beyond those who are now the faces of the Democratic and Republican parties. That sentiment could be a factor for Biden or Trump as they weigh whether to runand could affect the calculations of would-be challengers.
The survey of 1,000 registered voters, conducted by landline and cell phone from July 22-25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
After Trump: Ron DeSantis
In the Republican camp, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is hot on Trump’s heels.
Among seven possible Republican candidates:
Triumph finishes first, with 43%.
DeSantis is second with 34%.
Former Vice President Mike Pence is third with 7%.
Four other prospects lagging behind 1% to 3%.
But when Republicans’ first and second choices for the nomination, a way of measuring the breadth of a candidate’s potential support, are combined, DeSantis narrowly leads Trump; 64% choose DeSantis as their first or second choice, compared to 57% who choose Trump.
“With Donald Trump, there is no second choice to talk about: either you vote for him or you never vote for him,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Center for Political Research. “DeSantis, however, captures far more second-choices, which means that if other Republican opponents ultimately drop out, it would be DeSantis who would benefit.”
To be sure, Trump retains the fervent support of mainstream voters. “He did a lot of things for us,” Danielle Cobb, 34, a real estate appraiser from Tucson, Arizona, said in a follow-up interview. “He lowered the prices. The market was great. The cost of living was great, like everyone was heading in the right direction.”
But most Republicans did not list Trump as their choice for the 2024 nomination; 49% preferred another candidate and 8% were undecided.
“I think Biden has definitely shown that there’s probably a limit to the age of what a president should be … and you know, Trump is no younger than that,” said Julie Clifford, 62, a retired engineer from Burleson. . Texas. “So even though I voted for Trump before, I wouldn’t go after him this time.” She is interested in DeSantis.
Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney finished fourth in the poll, though a distant fourth with 3%. She is Trump’s nemesis, ousted from the House Republican leadership and now co-chair of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 assault on Capitol Hill. In two weeks, Cheney faces an uphill battle in the Wyoming primary to win the Republican nomination for his House seat.
Cheney was chosen by 13 of the 414 Republican primary voters surveyed. That was enough to edge out former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (elected by 11 voters), former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (6) and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (3).
Democratic contenders in group
Several potential Republican candidates have signaled that they are likely to run for the nomination even if Trump does. By contrast, most of the likely Democratic candidates have said they would support Biden if he were to run again.
At the moment, there is no such clear way in the Democratic field that he can follow Biden. The USA TODAY/Suffolk poll listed seven possibilities. They all finished within 10 points of each other.
Among Democratic primary voters:
Vice President Kamala Harris Y Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders are each at 18%.
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg it’s at 16%.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar it’s at 11%.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is at 10%
California Governor Gavin Newsom Y former Secretary of State Hillary Clintonthe party’s candidate in 2016, each have 8%.
The findings show the potential tug-of-war between the party’s most progressive voices (Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, with 28% overall support) and those most likely to speak out on the need to reach out to moderates, including Buttigieg and Klobuchar, both from the heart states. His support rose to 27%.
When Democratic voters’ first and second choice are combined, Harris has 35%, Buttigieg and Sanders 30%, Klobuchar and Ocasio-Cortez 22%, Newsom 18% and Clinton 15%.
Joseph Simon, 60, a data analyst from Mountain View, California, said that if Biden and Trump face a rematch, Biden would get his vote. But the candidate of his dreams is Klobuchar. “I think she’s a Democrat who listens to what used to be mainstream Democrat working class,” he said. “She has shown that she can appeal to moderate Republicans and independents.”
What about Biden?
“I think he’s doing a good job,” Simon said. “Given the circumstances, I think he’s doing a great job.”
But many Democrats recognized a thread of disappointment in Biden’s presidency, a feeling that he has failed to deliver as expected.
“I like a lot of the promises that Joe Biden made when he was running, but once he took office, he didn’t really keep any of the promises that he made,” said Cherish Derrickson, 23, a law student from Lexington. , Kentucky. She mentioned proposals to forgive student loans. “That’s not entirely his fault, but he has a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House, and nothing is being done.”
In 2020, Biden campaigned on his ability to unite the country and rebuild bipartisanship. By more than 3-1, 67%-21%, respondents say the country has become more divided during his tenure, not more united.
Democrats by 44%-41% say it has become more divided.
Biden would have a slight advantage over Trump in rematch
If there is a repeat of the 2020 race, 45% of those polled would vote for Biden, 41% for Trump and 6% for “someone else.” Four percent are undecided and 3% would not vote.
That four percentage point lead for Biden echoes his 4.4 point loss to Trump in the popular vote in the last election, 51.3%-46.9%. So less than 2% of the electorate supported other candidates.
Now only 1 in 4 voters say the Democratic and Republican parties do a good job of representing the political views of Americans. Six out of 10 say that a third party or several are needed. While efforts to establish a third party have failed in the past, former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, a Democrat, and former New Jersey governor Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, a Republican, launched Thursday a new centrist party called Adelante.
In the USA TODAY poll, Larry Braslow, a computer technician and independent politician, said he would like to see new faces. “None of the top politicians right now are impressive,” he said. “I’d love to see some new people, whether they’re current in politics or not, to come out and try to come up with some ideas, how they want to fix things or address them.
“I’m 71 years old, but our old politicians, all the guys over 50, I haven’t seen one with a new idea in years.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: A Biden-Trump rematch in 2024? Majority of Americans oppose, poll finds